The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/17/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. State polling released yesterday showed Obama with a steady lead in Oregon and McCain with a twenty-point lead in Kansas.

McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans and holds an eleven-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. Obama leads among voters under 30 while McCain has the edge among those over 65. The two candidates are even among voters aged 30-64 (see other recent demographic highlights). Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Another 34% are that certain about voting for McCain. That leaves 32% open to changing their mind before voting and creates a potential for either candidate to open a significant lead in the fall. Other key stats on the race for the White House can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

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New data released this morning shows that 48% of voters agree with Obama and believe Iraq is not the central front in the War on Terror. This comes a day after polling showed that growing numbers of Americans see the U.S. winning the War on Terror. Other new data shows that Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on seven of ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.

Senate polling released yesterday showed Oregon Senator Gordon Smith remains vulnerable this election cycle. But, Republicans can take more comfort in the Senate polling from Kansas.

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in North Carolina. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the race in Nevada and Arkansas. A North Carolina Senate update will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

Monday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.7contract_type = “rasmussen”;contract_id = 68256;node_id = 9654 + “_” + 7167;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id + ‘&contract_type=’ + contract_type,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request(); % chance of winning the White House.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/13/08

For the second straight day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the race for the White House is tied. Sunday’s numbers show Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 43% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It will take a few more days to determine whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise. (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. Also, take a moment to check out our weekly review of key polls. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227. Recent state polling provided good news for Obama in Wisconsin and North Dakota while McCain improved his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.

Just 15% of voters say the nation is heading in the right direction while 79% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. McCain is supported by 85% of those who say the country is heading in the right direction. Among the much larger number who say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, Obama leads 54% to 38%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008 and these voters prefer Obama by a sixteen point margin. Twenty-three percent (23%) name national security issues as their highest priority. They favor McCain by a two-to-one margin. Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care are most important for 12%, fiscal issues for 8%, and cultural issues for 5%. Obama leads by a wide margin among those who call cultural issues most important while McCain leads by similarly wide margins among those who consider fiscal or cultural issues tops.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters and unfavorably by 40%. For Obama, the numbers are 54% favorable and 44% unfavorable.

McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 23% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 53%.

Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–30% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 26% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables). Among unaffiliated voters, 18% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 16% say the same about McCain.

It is interesting to note that 57% of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 33% of Republicans are that enthusiastic about their nominee. However, 87% of Republicans have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of McCain while only 79% of Democrats have such an opinion of Obama. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

Rasmussen Markets data shows there are no clear favorites for the Veepstakes in either political party. However, the markets currently give Obama a 67.0% chance of winning the White House.

Other recent data shows that voters consider cutting government spending more important than balancing the budget and strongly reject Obama’s call for bilingualism. Nearly half (46%) support a military response if Iran attacks Israel. Voter approval of Congress has slipped to single digits but Democrats still retain a double-digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot. Voters perceive Barack Obama as closer to the political center now than they did a month ago and, strongly oppose a proposal that would lower the speed limit national to 55 miles-per-hour.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/04/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44% (see recent daily results). On the 232nd birthday of the United States, 50% of voters believe the nation’s best days have already come and gone.

Most voters agree with the basic truths expressed in the Declaration of Independence, but they’re not sure who presided at the Continental Congress. 75% of Americans are proud of America’s history, but under half (46%) believe the United States is truly a land of liberty and justice for all. Another survey released today found that 59% consider Independence Day to be one of the nation’s most important holidays. Also, 59% say the Constitution is fine just as it is while another 34% say only minor changes are needed.

Expanding on the “no taxation without representation” theme that played such a key role in the development of our nation, 57% believe voters should have the right to approve any tax increases.

Just 17% of Americans believe that working for the government is more honorable than other employment. Roughly one-out-of-three voters think it would be good for every American to serve two years in the military or a government service program.

Tracking Polls are normally released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race (see recent demographic highlights).

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Data released yesterday shows that Obama has a lead over McCain in Montana, a state that George W. Bush carried by twenty points just four years ago. Obama has big leads in Connecticut and New York. Democrats retain a double digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot and continue to hold a huge advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/03/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. With leaners, Obama has been at 49% for twelve straight days and at either 48% or 49% for twenty-one straight days. During that time, McCain has generally been at 43% of 44%. He slipped to 42% on one day and inched up to 45% four times.(see recent daily results).

Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race (see recent demographic highlights). Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Data released this morning shows that Obama has a lead over McCain in Montana, a state that George W. Bush carried by twenty points just four years ago. Also, 59% say the Constitution is fine just as it is while another 34% say only minor changes are needed. Americans continue to voice concerns about giving too much power to government. Also today, Larry Kudlow draws upon Rasmussen Reports data for his column—An America First Energy Plan.

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release polling data on government service and also on the Declaration of Independence. Later in the afternoon, data will be released on Fourth of July attitudes and plans. As the Fourth of July approaches, 75% of American voters are proud of their country’s history. Expanding on the “no taxation without representation” theme that played such a key role in the development of our nation, 57% believe voters should have the right to approve any tax increases.

Data released yesterday shows that most voters disagree with Harry Reid’s comments on fossil fuels that became a top-ranked YouTube video. Obama has big leads in Connecticut and New York. Democrats retain a double digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot and continue to hold a huge advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification. While politicians argue about whether tax cuts or a new economic stimulus package would do more to help the economy, American consumers say that lowering gas prices would do more than either of those policy options to get the economy moving again.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

In June, for the first time in the five-year history of the Rasmussen Employment Index, the number of workers who say their employers are laying people off tops the number who say their firms are hiring. The monthly Employment Index fell to an all-time low for the third time in four months.

Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/02/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Those results have been identical for three straight days as the campaign has entered a period of amazing stability. With leaners, Obama has been at 49% for eleven straight days and at either 48% or 49% for twenty straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights). Other data shows that Democrats continue to hold a huge advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification.

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables). Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

As the Fourth of July approaches,75% of American voters are proud of their country’s history and nearly as many believe the world would be a better place if more nations were like ours.

Polling released yesterday showed that 57% believe voters should have the right to approve any tax increases. The survey also found that most voters don’t believe the government needs any more revenue. However, a modest plurality would pick a candidate who would raise taxes only on the rich over a candidate who opposes all tax increases.

Voters are evenly divided as to whether Obama was smart or hypocritical to drop out of the public funding system for Presidential elections.

While politicians argue about whether tax cuts or a new economic stimulus package would do more to help the economy, American consumers say that lowering gas prices would do more than either of those policy options to get the economy moving again.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released new measures of a troubled economy. For the first time in the five-year history of the Rasmussen Employment Index, the number of workers who say their employers are laying people off tops the number who say their firms are hiring. The monthly Employment Index fell to an all-time low for the third time in four months. In June, the Rasmussen Consumer Index fell for the ninth straight month.

Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/01/08

Continuing the remarkable stability of recent weeks, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. With leaners, Obama has been at 49% for ten straight days and at either 48% or 49% for nineteen straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).

Today’s results come amidst new reminders of a troubled economy. For the first time in the five-year history of the Rasmussen Employment Index, the number of workers who say their employers are laying people off tops the number who say their firms are hiring. The monthly Employment Index fell to an all-time low for the third time in four months. In June, the Rasmussen Consumer Index fell for the ninth straight month. At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release data showing what consumers think is the best way to get the economy going again.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Polling released yesterday showed John McCain continuing lead in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Today, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data from Massachusetts. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Both receive unfavorable reviews from 43%. Opinions continue to be much more strongly held about Obama than McCain–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

The Rasmussen Reports Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Public attitudes towards the Supreme Court improved after the Justices overturned a Washington, DC ban on handguns last Thursday. On another topic, support for offshore drilling dipped a few points last week, but only Democrats are changing their opinion on the issue.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/29/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 43%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided. Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent daily results and recent demographic highlights).

New polling released this morning shows that public attitudes towards the Supreme Court improved after the Justices overturned a Washington, DC ban on handguns last Thursday. On another topic, support for offshore drilling dipped a few points this week, but only Democrats are changing their opinion on the issue. State polling shows McCain leading in his home state of Arizona and Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss enjoying a healthy lead over five potential challengers in Georgia.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. Their negative reviews are also very similar—42% for Obama and 44% for McCain. Opinions continue to be much more strongly held about Obama than McCain–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Each Saturday, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at what voters told us in key polls over the past week. This week’s topics include Supreme Court rulings, gas prices, and whether the United States is still a land of opportunity in these troubled economic times.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/28/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 5% remain undecided. Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent daily results and recent demographic highlights).

Each Saturday, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at what voters told us in key polls over the past week. This week’s topics include Supreme Court rulings, gas prices, and whether the United States is still a land of opportunity in these troubled economic times. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update and stay up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Recent state-by-state Presidential polling has been released for Texas, Kentucky and Mississippi. Additional state polling data will be released over the weekend. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. Their negative reviews are also very similar—43% for Obama and 44% for McCain. Opinions continue to be much more strongly held about Obama than McCain–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 19% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

New data on key Senate races shows Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell leading but still below 50% in his bid for re-election. In Mississippi, appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker finds himself in a toss-up race as he seeks to win his job for a full term.

The general public is pleased with the Supreme Court ruling on gun control. Voters also tend to believe that McCain agrees with the decision and Obama does not. On another hot topic, new survey data shows that 35% of voters say gas prices could reach $6 a gallon this summer and most say $5 gas is at least somewhat likely. Thirty-one percent (31%) are optimistic enough to think that gas prices will fall below $4 a gallon by summer’s end.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/27/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided. Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent daily results).

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day (see notes on recent demographic data). Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.

The Supreme Court will be an issue for uncommitted voters to consider and two-thirds of them followed news stories about yesterday’s Court decision on gun control. Those who knew what the Court ruled overwhelmingly agree with the decision. Voters tend to believe that McCain agrees with the decision and Obama does not. Prior to yesterday’s ruling, ratings for the Supreme Court had fallen sharply over the past month–just 26% gave the Justices good or an excellent marks, down from 31% two weeks ago and 41% a month ago. An earlier survey found that Republicans consider potential Supreme Court appointments a more important voting issue than Iraq.

The price of gas at the pump has emerged as possibly the biggest issue of this election season. New survey data shows that 35% of voters say gas prices could reach $6 a gallon this summer and most say $5 gas is at least somewhat likely. Thirty-one percent (31%) are optimistic enough to think that gas prices will fall below $4 a gallon by summer’s end. By a two-to-one margin, voters reject the notion that reducing energy consumption is enough to solve the nation’s energy problem.

Polling released yesterday afternoon shows that Obama is more competitive than expected in Mississippi. The state’s appointed U.S. Senator, Roger Wicker, finds himself in a toss-up race as he seeks to win his job for a full term. At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Kentucky Senate race where Mitch McConnell finds himself facing a much stiffer challenge than in prior years. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release data on the Presidential race in Kentucky. Additional state polling data will be released over the weekend.

While most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 54% of the nation’s voters. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 43%, McCain by 44%. However, opinions are much more strongly held about Obama than McCain. Thirty-two percent (32%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/26/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 3% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see notes on recent demographic data). Democrats continue to enjoy a thirteen-percentage point advantage in Generic Congressional Ballot polling.

Ratings for the Supreme Court have fallen sharply over the past month–just 26% now say the Justices are doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down from 31% two weeks ago and 41% a month ago. As the Court prepares to issue a much anticipated decision on gun control and the Second Amendment, voters are evenly divided on the need for stricter gun control, but most believe that cities have no right to ban handgun ownership.

Official Washington would like the immigration issue to go away, but Utah voters sent a different message by forcing Congressman Chris Cannon into early retirement on Tuesday. Cannon was trounced in a Republican Primary by Jason Chaffetz as Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 32% of voters are still angry about immigration. The key point in the data is that voters are not angry at immigrants, they are angry at the federal government.

While most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different from the rest and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Rasmussen Reports polling shows the race has remained very stable for several weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fifteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty-one straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on nineteen of the last twenty-two days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results).

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger–27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 18% say the same about his Republican counterpart (see recent daily favorables).

As Obama prepares for a series of unity events with Hillary Clinton, 37% of voters think Clinton wants Obama to win in November.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the federal government to get “actively” involved in efforts to bring down the price of gas and oil. By a two-to-margin, they say that providing incentives to private companies is more effective than having government conduct the research on its own. However, a pair of incentive programs proposed by McCain receive lukewarm reviews from voters nationwide. New data on energy issues will be released today at noon Eastern.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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