The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/31/08

May 31, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. This marks the fifth straight day that McCain has enjoyed at least a three-point advantage over Obama (see recent daily results). Occasionally, over the past few months, one candidate or the other has opened what appears to be a modest lead for several days. But, to this point in time, neither has been able to hold a sustained lead. Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Americans have heard about Scott McClellan’s new book. A plurality doesn’t know whether the former White House Press Secretary is telling the truth.

McCain is viewed favorably by 52% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Those figures include 19% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican hopeful and 23% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Obama’s numbers are 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Those figures represent Obama’s lowest ratings of the year. His favorability ratings peaked at 56% in mid-February. Twenty-five percent (25%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 37% have a Very Unfavorable view.

Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats.

On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation.

FiveThirtyEight.com has taken the time to review polling data and election results from the last eight years and rank more than 30 of the nation’s polling firms and organizations. While there is much more to polling than being closest to the mark with your final numbers, the results are interesting. Rasmussen Reports is ranked number three on the list.

Polling released Thursday showed John McCain leading in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker is in a competitive race. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 61.5% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Reports will conclude our tracking of this race when the Primary and Caucus season ends on Tuesday. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.3% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/30/08

May 30, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on six of the last seven days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Occasionally, over the past few months, one candidate or the other has opened what appears to be a modest lead for several days. But, to this point in time, neither has been able to hold a sustained lead.

On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 47%. Obama’s numbers are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats. Still, a commentary by Dr. Alan I. Abramowitz suggests that a victory by John McCain would be “an upset of unprecedented magnitude.” Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

FiveThirtyEight.com has taken the time to review polling data and election results from the last eight years and rank more than 30 of the nation’s polling firms and organizations. While there is much more to polling than being closest to the mark with your final numbers, the results are interesting. Rasmussen Reports is ranked number three on the list.

Polling released yesterday showed John McCain leading in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker is in a competitive race. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

McCain leads 58% to 33% among Evangelical Christians and by six points among other Protestant voters. Consistent with results from many recent state polls, McCain( McCain News ) does better among those who attend Church or other religious services on a regular basis. Obama( Obama News ) is stronger among those who rarely or never attend services (see other recent demographic notes).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Rhodes Cook looks at the Outsized Role of Caucuses in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Joe Conason looks at the troubled Democratic nominating process and concludes “there is plenty of blame to be shared among all the participants, from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and their surrogates to Howard Dean and the party apparatus in Washington.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/27/08

May 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that John McCain attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 44%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on four of the last six days. On the other two days during that stretch, the candidates were tied. (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Twenty-four percent (24%) of White Democrats nationwide currently say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.

New Senate polling data released today shows veteran Republican Senator Mitch McConnell trailing in Kentucky. In Minnesota, another Republican Senator, Norm Coleman, is narrowly ahead. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

Other polling shows that most Americans say that the economic stimulus package has had no impact. Most also say that the best thing the government can do for the economy is get out of the way. Seventy-one percent (71%) say it’s likely that gas prices will reach $5 a gallon this summer.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). ( McCain news )

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.6% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 49% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.5% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 48%. ( Obama News )

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/26/08

May 26, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that John McCain and Barack Obama are tied again at 45%. Over the past seven days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart three times. On the other four days, McCain( McCain News ) has had an advantage of two points or more (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

This Memorial Day, 37% of Americans have friends or relatives serving in Iraq. Seventy-five percent (75%) have a favorable opinion of the U.S. military.

New polling from Kentucky shows John McCain safely ahead in the state. In Minnesota, Obama retains a double digit lead. The Democrat has a smaller advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2c % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6 % chance of winning the nomination( Obama news ). Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/25/08

May 25, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows, for the second straight day, John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44%. This is the fourth time in the last six days that McCain has had an advantage exceeding a single percentage point. Still, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart for twelve of the last sixteen days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

New polling from Minnesota was released today showing Obama retaining a double digit lead over McCain. Polling released Friday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 26% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the White House, McCain leads among those who closely follow traditional local media and among those who rarely or never rely upon local TV and newspapers. Obama lead among those whose use is in between.

Among those who watch local TV news every night or nearly every night, McCain leads 49% to 41%. Among those who read the local paper every day or nearly every day, McCain leads 48% to 42%. Among those who rarely or never turn on local TV news, McCain leads by six and he is up by twelve among those who rarely or never read a local newspaper. Obama news

Among those who occasionally watch local television news and those who watch a couple of times a week, Obama leads by five. Among those who occasionally read the local newspaper and those who read it a couple of times per week, Obama leads by four.

Part of this divergence undoubtedly results from the age difference in support for Obama and McCain. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters.

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign . The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.5% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/24/08

May 24, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44%. This is the third time in the last five days that McCain has had an advantage exceeding a single percentage point. Still, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart for twelve of the last fifteen days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the White House, McCain leads among those who closely follow traditional local media and among those who rarely or never rely upon local TV and newspapers. Obama lead among those whose use is in between.

Among those who watch local TV news every night or nearly every night, McCain leads 49% to 41%. Among those who read the local paper every day or nearly every day, McCain leads 48% to 42%. Among those who rarely or never turn on local TV news, McCain leads by six and he is up by twelve among those who rarely or never read a local newspaper. Obama news

Among those who occasionally watch local television news and those who watch a couple of times a week, Obama leads by five. Among those who occasionally read the local newspaper and those who read it a couple of times per week, Obama leads by four.

Part of this divergence undoubtedly results from the age difference in support for Obama and McCain. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters. Obama polls

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign . The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.4% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%. Obama videos

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/23/08

May 23, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain and Barack Obama tied with each man attracting 45% of the vote. On twelve of the last fourteen days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with a double-digit lead in California and McCain holding a modest lead in Nevada. New state polls will be released at 10:30 this morning for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.8% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.

A column by Dick Morris, drawing heavily upon Rasmussen Reports polling data, looks at the “GOP Senate Massacre of ’08.” He suggests the results could be worse for Republicans than “the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.