TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/03/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. With leaners, Obama has been at 49% for twelve straight days and at either 48% or 49% for twenty-one straight days. During that time, McCain has generally been at 43% of 44%. He slipped to 42% on one day and inched up to 45% four times.(see recent daily results).

Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race (see recent demographic highlights). Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Data released this morning shows that Obama has a lead over McCain in Montana, a state that George W. Bush carried by twenty points just four years ago. Also, 59% say the Constitution is fine just as it is while another 34% say only minor changes are needed. Americans continue to voice concerns about giving too much power to government. Also today, Larry Kudlow draws upon Rasmussen Reports data for his column—An America First Energy Plan.

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release polling data on government service and also on the Declaration of Independence. Later in the afternoon, data will be released on Fourth of July attitudes and plans. As the Fourth of July approaches, 75% of American voters are proud of their country’s history. Expanding on the “no taxation without representation” theme that played such a key role in the development of our nation, 57% believe voters should have the right to approve any tax increases.

Data released yesterday shows that most voters disagree with Harry Reid’s comments on fossil fuels that became a top-ranked YouTube video. Obama has big leads in Connecticut and New York. Democrats retain a double digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot and continue to hold a huge advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification. While politicians argue about whether tax cuts or a new economic stimulus package would do more to help the economy, American consumers say that lowering gas prices would do more than either of those policy options to get the economy moving again.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

In June, for the first time in the five-year history of the Rasmussen Employment Index, the number of workers who say their employers are laying people off tops the number who say their firms are hiring. The monthly Employment Index fell to an all-time low for the third time in four months.

Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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