The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/04/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44% (see recent daily results). On the 232nd birthday of the United States, 50% of voters believe the nation’s best days have already come and gone.

Most voters agree with the basic truths expressed in the Declaration of Independence, but they’re not sure who presided at the Continental Congress. 75% of Americans are proud of America’s history, but under half (46%) believe the United States is truly a land of liberty and justice for all. Another survey released today found that 59% consider Independence Day to be one of the nation’s most important holidays. Also, 59% say the Constitution is fine just as it is while another 34% say only minor changes are needed.

Expanding on the “no taxation without representation” theme that played such a key role in the development of our nation, 57% believe voters should have the right to approve any tax increases.

Just 17% of Americans believe that working for the government is more honorable than other employment. Roughly one-out-of-three voters think it would be good for every American to serve two years in the military or a government service program.

Tracking Polls are normally released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race (see recent demographic highlights).

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Data released yesterday shows that Obama has a lead over McCain in Montana, a state that George W. Bush carried by twenty points just four years ago. Obama has big leads in Connecticut and New York. Democrats retain a double digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot and continue to hold a huge advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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