TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/29/08

June 29, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 43%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided. Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent daily results and recent demographic highlights).

New polling released this morning shows that public attitudes towards the Supreme Court improved after the Justices overturned a Washington, DC ban on handguns last Thursday. On another topic, support for offshore drilling dipped a few points this week, but only Democrats are changing their opinion on the issue. State polling shows McCain leading in his home state of Arizona and Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss enjoying a healthy lead over five potential challengers in Georgia.

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Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. Their negative reviews are also very similar—42% for Obama and 44% for McCain. Opinions continue to be much more strongly held about Obama than McCain–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Each Saturday, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at what voters told us in key polls over the past week. This week’s topics include Supreme Court rulings, gas prices, and whether the United States is still a land of opportunity in these troubled economic times.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.


TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/28/08

June 28, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 5% remain undecided. Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent daily results and recent demographic highlights).

Each Saturday, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at what voters told us in key polls over the past week. This week’s topics include Supreme Court rulings, gas prices, and whether the United States is still a land of opportunity in these troubled economic times. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update and stay up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Recent state-by-state Presidential polling has been released for Texas, Kentucky and Mississippi. Additional state polling data will be released over the weekend. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. Their negative reviews are also very similar—43% for Obama and 44% for McCain. Opinions continue to be much more strongly held about Obama than McCain–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 19% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

New data on key Senate races shows Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell leading but still below 50% in his bid for re-election. In Mississippi, appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker finds himself in a toss-up race as he seeks to win his job for a full term.

The general public is pleased with the Supreme Court ruling on gun control. Voters also tend to believe that McCain agrees with the decision and Obama does not. On another hot topic, new survey data shows that 35% of voters say gas prices could reach $6 a gallon this summer and most say $5 gas is at least somewhat likely. Thirty-one percent (31%) are optimistic enough to think that gas prices will fall below $4 a gallon by summer’s end.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/27/08

June 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided. Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent daily results).

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day (see notes on recent demographic data). Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.

The Supreme Court will be an issue for uncommitted voters to consider and two-thirds of them followed news stories about yesterday’s Court decision on gun control. Those who knew what the Court ruled overwhelmingly agree with the decision. Voters tend to believe that McCain agrees with the decision and Obama does not. Prior to yesterday’s ruling, ratings for the Supreme Court had fallen sharply over the past month–just 26% gave the Justices good or an excellent marks, down from 31% two weeks ago and 41% a month ago. An earlier survey found that Republicans consider potential Supreme Court appointments a more important voting issue than Iraq.

The price of gas at the pump has emerged as possibly the biggest issue of this election season. New survey data shows that 35% of voters say gas prices could reach $6 a gallon this summer and most say $5 gas is at least somewhat likely. Thirty-one percent (31%) are optimistic enough to think that gas prices will fall below $4 a gallon by summer’s end. By a two-to-one margin, voters reject the notion that reducing energy consumption is enough to solve the nation’s energy problem.

Polling released yesterday afternoon shows that Obama is more competitive than expected in Mississippi. The state’s appointed U.S. Senator, Roger Wicker, finds himself in a toss-up race as he seeks to win his job for a full term. At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Kentucky Senate race where Mitch McConnell finds himself facing a much stiffer challenge than in prior years. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release data on the Presidential race in Kentucky. Additional state polling data will be released over the weekend.

While most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 54% of the nation’s voters. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 43%, McCain by 44%. However, opinions are much more strongly held about Obama than McCain. Thirty-two percent (32%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/26/08

June 26, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 3% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see notes on recent demographic data). Democrats continue to enjoy a thirteen-percentage point advantage in Generic Congressional Ballot polling.

Ratings for the Supreme Court have fallen sharply over the past month–just 26% now say the Justices are doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down from 31% two weeks ago and 41% a month ago. As the Court prepares to issue a much anticipated decision on gun control and the Second Amendment, voters are evenly divided on the need for stricter gun control, but most believe that cities have no right to ban handgun ownership.

Official Washington would like the immigration issue to go away, but Utah voters sent a different message by forcing Congressman Chris Cannon into early retirement on Tuesday. Cannon was trounced in a Republican Primary by Jason Chaffetz as Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 32% of voters are still angry about immigration. The key point in the data is that voters are not angry at immigrants, they are angry at the federal government.

While most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different from the rest and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Rasmussen Reports polling shows the race has remained very stable for several weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fifteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty-one straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on nineteen of the last twenty-two days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results).

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger–27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 18% say the same about his Republican counterpart (see recent daily favorables).

As Obama prepares for a series of unity events with Hillary Clinton, 37% of voters think Clinton wants Obama to win in November.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the federal government to get “actively” involved in efforts to bring down the price of gas and oil. By a two-to-margin, they say that providing incentives to private companies is more effective than having government conduct the research on its own. However, a pair of incentive programs proposed by McCain receive lukewarm reviews from voters nationwide. New data on energy issues will be released today at noon Eastern.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/25/08

June 25, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier. Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.

The race has remained very stable in recent weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fourteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on eighteen of the last twenty-one days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results).

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger–26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 19% say the same about his Republican counterpart (see recent daily favorables).

With the race stable for the moment, Obama is preparing to make his first campaign appearances with former rival Hillary Clinton. Just 37% of voters think Clinton wants Obama to win in November. Thirty-three percent (33%) say she does not want an Obama victory and 30% are not sure.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the federal government to get “actively” involved in efforts to bring down the price of gas and oil. By a two-to-margin, they say that providing incentives to private companies is more effective than having government conduct the research on its own. However, a pair of incentive programs proposed by McCain receive lukewarm reviews from voters nationwide.

Earlier polling has shown strong support for offshore drilling both nationally and in Florida. However, the reaction in California is far different. Polling conducted in the Golden State during McCain’s recent visit found the Republican falling twenty-eight points behind Obama. Additional national polling on the energy issue will be released Thursday morning by Rasmussen Reports.

New polling data on the Presidential campaign in Nebraska will be released today at Noon Eastern. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data on the Generic Congressional Ballot will be released. Polling released earlier this week showed Obama up by four points in Pennsylvania and up by eight in New Mexico. McCain leads in the very Republican state of Utah. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 81% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds a three-point edge among unaffiliated voters. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—30% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 33% are that certain of their support for McCain (see recent demographic notes).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.


TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/24/08

June 24, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 80% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—32% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 32% are that certain of their support for McCain (see recent demographic notes).

Polling released yesterday showed Obama up by four points in Pennsylvania and up by eight in New Mexico. McCain leads in the very Republican state of Utah. Key polls from last week are highlighted in What They Told Us. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data looking at how voters want the government to get involved in bringing down the price of gas and oil. On a different topic, data was released yesterday showing that American voters are evenly divided on the need for stricter gun control laws. However, most don’t think city government should have the right to prevent citizens from owning handguns in their city.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%. For McCain, the numbers are 54% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 15% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Michelle Obama is now viewed favorably by forty-five percent (45%) of voters and unfavorably by 42%. For Cindy McCain, the numbers are 47% favorable and 27% unfavorable (see crosstabs). For both women, those numbers are down slightly from the earlier tracking results.


TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/23/08

June 23, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 43% (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

American voters are evenly divided on the need for stricter gun control laws but don’t think city government should have the right to prevent citizens from owning handguns in their city.

At noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data from New Mexico and Utah. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, results for the New Mexico Senate race will be released. Finally, data on the Presidential race from Pennsylvania will be released at 5:00 Eastern. Key polls from last week are highlighted in What They Told Us.

Currently, Obama and McCain are essentially even among men while the Democrat leads by twelve among women. McCain leads 49% to 42% among White Voters but trails 93% to 3% among African-American voters. Among voters who see economic issues as most important this year, Obama leads 59% to 32%. As for those who view national security issues as most important, McCain leads 59% to 37% (see other recent demographic notes). Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters think McCain views U.S. society as generally fair and decent. Forty-five percent (45%) believe Obama holds that same view.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%. For McCain, the numbers are 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–31% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 19% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Michelle Obama is now viewed favorably by forty-five percent (45%) of voters and unfavorably by 42%. For Cindy McCain, the numbers are 47% favorable and 27% unfavorable (see crosstabs). For both women, those numbers are down slightly from the earlier tracking results.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.