TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/01/08

Continuing the remarkable stability of recent weeks, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. With leaners, Obama has been at 49% for ten straight days and at either 48% or 49% for nineteen straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).

Today’s results come amidst new reminders of a troubled economy. For the first time in the five-year history of the Rasmussen Employment Index, the number of workers who say their employers are laying people off tops the number who say their firms are hiring. The monthly Employment Index fell to an all-time low for the third time in four months. In June, the Rasmussen Consumer Index fell for the ninth straight month. At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release data showing what consumers think is the best way to get the economy going again.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Polling released yesterday showed John McCain continuing lead in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Today, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data from Massachusetts. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Both receive unfavorable reviews from 43%. Opinions continue to be much more strongly held about Obama than McCain–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

The Rasmussen Reports Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Public attitudes towards the Supreme Court improved after the Justices overturned a Washington, DC ban on handguns last Thursday. On another topic, support for offshore drilling dipped a few points last week, but only Democrats are changing their opinion on the issue.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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