TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 7/02/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Those results have been identical for three straight days as the campaign has entered a period of amazing stability. With leaners, Obama has been at 49% for eleven straight days and at either 48% or 49% for twenty straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights). Other data shows that Democrats continue to hold a huge advantage over Republicans in terms of party identification.

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 42%. Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain–33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables). Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

As the Fourth of July approaches,75% of American voters are proud of their country’s history and nearly as many believe the world would be a better place if more nations were like ours.

Polling released yesterday showed that 57% believe voters should have the right to approve any tax increases. The survey also found that most voters don’t believe the government needs any more revenue. However, a modest plurality would pick a candidate who would raise taxes only on the rich over a candidate who opposes all tax increases.

Voters are evenly divided as to whether Obama was smart or hypocritical to drop out of the public funding system for Presidential elections.

While politicians argue about whether tax cuts or a new economic stimulus package would do more to help the economy, American consumers say that lowering gas prices would do more than either of those policy options to get the economy moving again.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released new measures of a troubled economy. For the first time in the five-year history of the Rasmussen Employment Index, the number of workers who say their employers are laying people off tops the number who say their firms are hiring. The monthly Employment Index fell to an all-time low for the third time in four months. In June, the Rasmussen Consumer Index fell for the ninth straight month.

Most public polling continues to suggest a fairly close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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