Obama is Winning Every Metric – Don’t Believe the Hype

April 28, 2008

Is Obama really losing by the Electoral College metric? If you look at the 16 most competitive contests of 2004, he actually has won MORE delegates than Hillary Clinton. What’s more, her margin of victory was 6.7%, and his was 20.7% on average.

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Arizona superdelegate pledges vote for Obama!

April 28, 2008

Sen. Barack Obama picked up another superdelegate today at the Arizona Democratic Party’s state convention. Charlene Fernandez, chairwoman of the Yuma Democratic Party, was chosen the state party’s first vice chairwoman, a position that carries with it superdelegate status.

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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/27/08

April 28, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama also earns 46%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Among White voters, McCain leads Obama by twelve and Clinton by eleven. Among African-American voters, Obama dominates but Clinton attracts just 59% support. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

These results come on a day when consumer confidence in the economy has fallen to another record low. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that 77% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse and that most—55%–say their own personal finances are getting worse.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 47% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). , McCain is generally trusted more than the Democratic candidates on several key issues.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8% chance of winning in November

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 42% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the Pennsylvania Primary. On the morning of that Primary, Obama led Clinton 49% to 41%, essentially the same as today’s results.

For each of the past six daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been within three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/26/08

April 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. In both match-ups, McCain leads among men while the Democratic candidate leads among women. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

New state polling from Pennsylvania shows that both Democrats lost ground to John McCain during the final two weeks of the Keystone State campaign. McCain and Obama are essentially even while Clinton enjoys a modest lead over the GOP hopeful. Favorability ratings for both Democrats slipped in Pennsylvania over the past two weeks.

National polling data shows that while Democrats are generally trusted more than Republicans on key issues, McCain is generally trusted more than the current Democratic candidates.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll and include three nights of data since the Pennsylvania Primary. For each of the past five daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been withing three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 50% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0% chance of winning in November

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/25/08

April 26, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain also earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). Scott Rasmussen suggests that a careful look at the tracking poll data shows potentially hidden support for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0 % chance of winning in November.

Later today, new state polling will be released from Pennsylvania. Also, polling data will be released showing whether voters trust McCain or Clinton more on key issues of Election 2008. Earlier this week, data was released showing that, on most key issues, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans. However, when candidate names are used rather than party labels, the results shift–McCain is trusted more than Obama on both the economy and the War in Iraq.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 49%, Clinton 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Those numbers are unchanged from the night before and, so far, there is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include two full nights of polling following the Pennsylvania Primary.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.6% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

In the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, Democrats now lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). New state polling has just been released for Minnesota and Nevada.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.


29 North Carolina Legislators Endorse Barack Obama

April 24, 2008

April 22, 2008 Today 29 members of the North Carolina state legislature endorsed Senator Obama, citing his ability to inspire and bring people together to move our country forward, and put an end to the divisive politics of Washington that have stalled progress on the great challenges facing our nation.

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Obama Set To Announce New Superdelegates After Pennsylvania

April 24, 2008

Obama strategists said Monday that they expected to announce a series of additional endorsements by uncommitted superdelegates shortly after Pennsylvania votes. A strong showing by Obama in Pennsylvania would give superdelegates more comfort in coming forward, but a bad loss might send them back to the assessment stage.

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