The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/20/08

June 20, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, Obama holds a four-point advantage, 48% to 44%. This is the fifth straight day that Obama’s support has been at 48% (with leaners). During that time, McCain’s support has been at either 44% or 45% (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic notes).

NOTE: Rasmussen Report is pleased to announce that it has reached an agreement with TidalTV, Inc. This new streaming broadband television service offers free and instant access to premium, branded programming that reflects the lifestyles, passions and interests of a diverse viewing audience. Rasmussen Reports will provide updated video content featuring our latest polling data and analysis. More details coming soon…

Obama’s decision to opt out of public funding is likely to have little impact on his standing with voters. Only 30% support public financing of the campaigns and just 16% say the issue is Very Important to their vote. Today, McCain will give a speech in Canada extolling the virtues of free trade at a time when most Americans believe the North American Free Trade Agreement needs to be renegotiated. This position is far less popular among voters than the Republican candidate’s recent call for drilling in offshore oil wells.

Polling released yesterday shows Colorado is once again too close to call in the Presidential race although the prospects for a Democratic Senate pick-up in the state are improving.

With this new data, Colorado is moving from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. At the same time, however, Ohio is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.” The latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Ohio remains close but Rasmussen Markets data and an average of all recent polls have created a shift. With these changes, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Nevada and New Hampshire will be released at Noon Eastern today. New data just released shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen building a double-digit lead. She is poised to take a Senate seat from Republicans in New Hampshire.

Obama is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 44%. For McCain, the numbers are 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–28% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

Advertisements

Barack Obama Explains the Meaning of Life: Progress

June 15, 2008

Obama said, “when I was your age, I thought life was all about me. And how do make my way in the world and how do I become successful and how do I get the things that I want. And right now life for me revolves around those two girls (his daughters). And I think about what kind of a place am I leaving them.” read more

at Obama News


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/23/08

May 23, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain and Barack Obama tied with each man attracting 45% of the vote. On twelve of the last fourteen days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with a double-digit lead in California and McCain holding a modest lead in Nevada. New state polls will be released at 10:30 this morning for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.8% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.

A column by Dick Morris, drawing heavily upon Rasmussen Reports polling data, looks at the “GOP Senate Massacre of ’08.” He suggests the results could be worse for Republicans than “the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/27/08

April 28, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama also earns 46%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Among White voters, McCain leads Obama by twelve and Clinton by eleven. Among African-American voters, Obama dominates but Clinton attracts just 59% support. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

These results come on a day when consumer confidence in the economy has fallen to another record low. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that 77% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse and that most—55%–say their own personal finances are getting worse.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 47% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). , McCain is generally trusted more than the Democratic candidates on several key issues.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8% chance of winning in November

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 42% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the Pennsylvania Primary. On the morning of that Primary, Obama led Clinton 49% to 41%, essentially the same as today’s results.

For each of the past six daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been within three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/26/08

April 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. In both match-ups, McCain leads among men while the Democratic candidate leads among women. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

New state polling from Pennsylvania shows that both Democrats lost ground to John McCain during the final two weeks of the Keystone State campaign. McCain and Obama are essentially even while Clinton enjoys a modest lead over the GOP hopeful. Favorability ratings for both Democrats slipped in Pennsylvania over the past two weeks.

National polling data shows that while Democrats are generally trusted more than Republicans on key issues, McCain is generally trusted more than the current Democratic candidates.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll and include three nights of data since the Pennsylvania Primary. For each of the past five daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been withing three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 50% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0% chance of winning in November

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/21/08

April 21, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical margin of 48% to 43%. While the topline results are the same, there are important differences in the way those results are obtained. Clinton does better among Democrats than Obama while Obama does better among unaffiliated voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, McCain leads Obama by five and Clinton by sixteen. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, on the eve of the Pennsylvania Primary, Obama leads Clinton nationally 47% to 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Reports will release its final Pennsylvania Primary poll results at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. Nationally, the candidates are even among Democrats while Obama builds his advantage among Unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 83.6% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Eighteen percent (18%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 35% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 26% Very Favorable and 33% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 18% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Twenty percent (20%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Polling released over the weekend shows that confidence in the War on Terror has declined slightly over the past month. Forty-five percent (45%) of the nation’s voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe the terrorists are winning.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/20/08

April 21, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by six percentage points and Hillary Clinton by four.McCain leads Barack Obama 48% to 42%. That is little changed from McCain’s five-point lead over Obama just prior to the last debate between the Democratic candidates. The presumptive Republican nominee leads Hillary Clinton 48% to 44%. Prior to the debate, McCain enjoyed a ten-point lead over Clinton. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results).

Today’s results mark one of the few times that Clinton runs better than Obama against McCain. It will take a few more days to determine if this is a lasting change or merely statistical noise.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 33% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 25% Very Favorable and 33% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 18% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton nationally 46% to 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Today’s results continue to suggest a very stable race with Obama enjoying a consistent, but modest, lead. Obama has been within three percentage points of the 48% level every day for three weeks. Clinton has stayed within three points of the 43% level for well over a month.

While the national numbers are fairly stable, Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to three percentage points. That same survey found that 57% believe the Superdelegates should honor the primary results and vote for Obama even if something happens to convince them that Clinton would be a stronger general election candidate. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 83.7 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.9 % chance of winning the White House in November.

New polling shows a toss-up between Obama and McCain in Colorado while McCain retains a solid lead over Clinton in that state. The campaign for Colorado’s U.S. Senate seat remains close.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.