TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/26/08

June 26, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 3% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see notes on recent demographic data). Democrats continue to enjoy a thirteen-percentage point advantage in Generic Congressional Ballot polling.

Ratings for the Supreme Court have fallen sharply over the past month–just 26% now say the Justices are doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down from 31% two weeks ago and 41% a month ago. As the Court prepares to issue a much anticipated decision on gun control and the Second Amendment, voters are evenly divided on the need for stricter gun control, but most believe that cities have no right to ban handgun ownership.

Official Washington would like the immigration issue to go away, but Utah voters sent a different message by forcing Congressman Chris Cannon into early retirement on Tuesday. Cannon was trounced in a Republican Primary by Jason Chaffetz as Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 32% of voters are still angry about immigration. The key point in the data is that voters are not angry at immigrants, they are angry at the federal government.

While most public polling continues to suggest a close race between Obama and McCain, a couple of recent polls have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead. Scott Rasmussen takes a look at why these polls are different from the rest and at the polling-industry disagreement about how to treat partisan identification in a poll.

Rasmussen Reports polling shows the race has remained very stable for several weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fifteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty-one straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on nineteen of the last twenty-two days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results).

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 33% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger–27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 18% say the same about his Republican counterpart (see recent daily favorables).

As Obama prepares for a series of unity events with Hillary Clinton, 37% of voters think Clinton wants Obama to win in November.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the federal government to get “actively” involved in efforts to bring down the price of gas and oil. By a two-to-margin, they say that providing incentives to private companies is more effective than having government conduct the research on its own. However, a pair of incentive programs proposed by McCain receive lukewarm reviews from voters nationwide. New data on energy issues will be released today at noon Eastern.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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