TheRasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/25/08

June 25, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier. Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.

The race has remained very stable in recent weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fourteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on eighteen of the last twenty-one days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results).

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger–26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 19% say the same about his Republican counterpart (see recent daily favorables).

With the race stable for the moment, Obama is preparing to make his first campaign appearances with former rival Hillary Clinton. Just 37% of voters think Clinton wants Obama to win in November. Thirty-three percent (33%) say she does not want an Obama victory and 30% are not sure.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the federal government to get “actively” involved in efforts to bring down the price of gas and oil. By a two-to-margin, they say that providing incentives to private companies is more effective than having government conduct the research on its own. However, a pair of incentive programs proposed by McCain receive lukewarm reviews from voters nationwide.

Earlier polling has shown strong support for offshore drilling both nationally and in Florida. However, the reaction in California is far different. Polling conducted in the Golden State during McCain’s recent visit found the Republican falling twenty-eight points behind Obama. Additional national polling on the energy issue will be released Thursday morning by Rasmussen Reports.

New polling data on the Presidential campaign in Nebraska will be released today at Noon Eastern. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data on the Generic Congressional Ballot will be released. Polling released earlier this week showed Obama up by four points in Pennsylvania and up by eight in New Mexico. McCain leads in the very Republican state of Utah. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 81% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds a three-point edge among unaffiliated voters. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—30% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 33% are that certain of their support for McCain (see recent demographic notes).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.