The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Currently, Obama wins the vote from 80% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—32% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 32% are that certain of their support for McCain (see recent demographic notes).
Polling released yesterday showed Obama up by four points in Pennsylvania and up by eight in New Mexico. McCain leads in the very Republican state of Utah. Key polls from last week are highlighted in What They Told Us. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data looking at how voters want the government to get involved in bringing down the price of gas and oil. On a different topic, data was released yesterday showing that American voters are evenly divided on the need for stricter gun control laws. However, most don’t think city government should have the right to prevent citizens from owning handguns in their city.
Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%. For McCain, the numbers are 54% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 15% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).
Michelle Obama is now viewed favorably by forty-five percent (45%) of voters and unfavorably by 42%. For Cindy McCain, the numbers are 47% favorable and 27% unfavorable (see crosstabs). For both women, those numbers are down slightly from the earlier tracking results.