The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/20/08

June 20, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, Obama holds a four-point advantage, 48% to 44%. This is the fifth straight day that Obama’s support has been at 48% (with leaners). During that time, McCain’s support has been at either 44% or 45% (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic notes).

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Obama’s decision to opt out of public funding is likely to have little impact on his standing with voters. Only 30% support public financing of the campaigns and just 16% say the issue is Very Important to their vote. Today, McCain will give a speech in Canada extolling the virtues of free trade at a time when most Americans believe the North American Free Trade Agreement needs to be renegotiated. This position is far less popular among voters than the Republican candidate’s recent call for drilling in offshore oil wells.

Polling released yesterday shows Colorado is once again too close to call in the Presidential race although the prospects for a Democratic Senate pick-up in the state are improving.

With this new data, Colorado is moving from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. At the same time, however, Ohio is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.” The latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Ohio remains close but Rasmussen Markets data and an average of all recent polls have created a shift. With these changes, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Nevada and New Hampshire will be released at Noon Eastern today. New data just released shows Democrat Jeanne Shaheen building a double-digit lead. She is poised to take a Senate seat from Republicans in New Hampshire.

Obama is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 44%. For McCain, the numbers are 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–28% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.