The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/19/08

June 19, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, Obama holds a three-point advantage, 48% to 45%. (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Voters are evenly divided as to which candidate they trust most on economic issues but favor McCain by a wide margin on national security topics (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Obama’s modest bounce since capturing the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now being reflected in a number of state polls. As a result, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows five states shifting in the Democrat’s direction today. Most notable are Colorado and New Hampshire which move from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic. New Jersey moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, Maine from Likely Democratic to Safely Democratic, and Tennessee from Safely Republican to Likely Republican. Polling released late yesterday shows that Ohio is still too close to call.

When all the changes are made, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 240. New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Colorado will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. Data on the state’s Senate race will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

While McCain is struggling with Obama’s bounce, his call for offshore oil drilling may be helping. A new poll shows that Florida voters agree with the GOP candidate that offshore drilling will bring down gas prices. When survey respondents are told that McCain favors offshore drilling and Obama opposes, support for McCain increases a bit. Data released earlier this week showed that 67% of voters believe drilling should be allowed off the coasts of California, Florida and other states. New national survey data on the topic of energy will be released at noon Eastern today including questions about offshore oil drilling, nuclear power plants, and research for alternative energy sources.

Other recent survey data shows that 56% say that the North American Free Trade Agreement needs to be renegotiated and that Congressional ratings have fallen to an all-time low. Thirty percent (30%) believe that most members of Congress are corrupt. Most voters believe that Supreme Court Justices have their own political agendas to advance and just 53% are opposed to bans on “hate speech.”

Obama is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 42%. For McCain, the numbers are 55% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–31% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 19% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

McCain leads among voters who earn $40,000 to $75,000 a year. Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and those whose income tops $75,000 (See recent demographic notes).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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