The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/14/08

June 14, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama holds a six-point advantage, 49% to 43%. Leaners are those who initially have no preference for either candidate but who indicate in a follow-up question that they are leaning towards one of the contenders. Overall, the recent results show that Obama received a modest bounce after clinching the nomination and the numbers have changed little since then (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

A new Saturday morning feature debuts this morning: “What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls.”. Also, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator has been updated. With the revised formula and latest poll results, Obama leads in states with 185 Electoral College votes while McCain has the advantage in states with 174 votes. A total of 141 votes are in states that merely lean towards one candidate or the other while 38 votes are in four states rated as a Toss-Up.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 44%. The numbers for McCain are 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama–32% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 19% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables).

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women. ( Obama news )

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.

Public perceptions of the candidates are changing rapidly in Election 2008. More changes can be expected as voters get to know two men who are not nearly as established in the public mind as the candidates in other recent elections. See recent demographic notes (Note: Premium Members can review crosstabs for the last full-week of polling).

Other recent polling shows that 32% of voters are still “angry” about the immigration issue. However, they are not mad at immigrants, their anger is directed towards the government. Also, 57% say it’s not possible to run a Presidential campaign without ties to lobbyists and special interest groups. Most expect either Obama or McCain to be influenced by these groups but still consider both men at least as ethical as most politicians. ( McCain News )

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.