The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 6/8/08

June 9, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama’s bounce growing to an eight-point lead over John McCain. Obama now attracts 48% of the vote while McCain earns 40%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 43%. On Tuesday, just before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46% (see recent daily results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Obama a 95.1 % chance of winning.

Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama. Still, three-out-of-ten voters are either uncommitted or could change their mind before Election Day. Fifty-six percent (56%) of those swayable voters are women and most earn less than $60,000 a year. There are more conservatives than liberals among these potential swing voters.

Other survey results show that voters—by a 4-to-1 margin–believe reporters try to help their favorite candidate rather than report the news objectively. Most believe Obama has been the reporters’ favorite so far in Election 2008 and 44% believe most reporters will try to help Obama in the fall campaign. Just 14% believe that most reporters will try to help McCain.

Fifty percent (50%) of voters say federal spending will increase if Obama is elected and 33% say the same will happen if McCain wins. Forty-five percent (45%) say taxes will increase if there is a President Obama. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say tax hikes will result from a McCain Administration (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Tonight (Sunday), at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for South Carolina. Additional state surveys will be released on Monday.

Obama’s bounce can be seen in his favorability ratings as well. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters now give the Illinois Senator positive reviews. Just 41% have an unfavorable opinion. Those totals include 36% with a Very Favorable opinion and 27% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Today’s results are the highest ratings yet recorded for Obama.

As for McCain, he is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Opinions about the presumptive Republican nominee are less firmly established. Just 16% have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 21% have a Very Unfavorable view (see daily results).

Other data found little enthusiasm for John McCain reaching across party lines to select Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Only 13% believe McCain should select a woman or minority candidate. Forty-one percent (41%) believe that Obama is too inexperienced to be President while 30% say McCain is too old. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Democrats believe Hillary Clinton should be named as Obama’s Vice-Presidential running mate. ( Obama News )

Additionally, 78% of all voters say they could vote for an African-American for President. But, only 56% believe their family, friends and co-workers are willing to do the same. Economic issues have muscled past national security issues as a voter concern with significant implications for Election 2008. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Americans say that talks with Iran should not take place until that nation stops developing nuclear weapons.  ( Obama Videos )

Voters see a clear distinction between the two leading candidates on the issue of Iraq. Eighty-one percent (81%) say Obama is more interested in getting troops home from Iraq than finishing the mission. Seventy-four percent (74%) say that McCain is more interested in finishing the mission (crosstabs available for Premium Members). An earlier survey found that 52% of voters say getting the troops home is the higher priority.

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view. When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their own, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama. On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). ( McCain News )

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.