The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/31/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. This marks the fifth straight day that McCain has enjoyed at least a three-point advantage over Obama (see recent daily results). Occasionally, over the past few months, one candidate or the other has opened what appears to be a modest lead for several days. But, to this point in time, neither has been able to hold a sustained lead. Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Americans have heard about Scott McClellan’s new book. A plurality doesn’t know whether the former White House Press Secretary is telling the truth.

McCain is viewed favorably by 52% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Those figures include 19% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican hopeful and 23% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Obama’s numbers are 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Those figures represent Obama’s lowest ratings of the year. His favorability ratings peaked at 56% in mid-February. Twenty-five percent (25%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 37% have a Very Unfavorable view.

Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats.

On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation.

FiveThirtyEight.com has taken the time to review polling data and election results from the last eight years and rank more than 30 of the nation’s polling firms and organizations. While there is much more to polling than being closest to the mark with your final numbers, the results are interesting. Rasmussen Reports is ranked number three on the list.

Polling released Thursday showed John McCain leading in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker is in a competitive race. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 61.5% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Reports will conclude our tracking of this race when the Primary and Caucus season ends on Tuesday. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.3% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: