The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/30/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on six of the last seven days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Occasionally, over the past few months, one candidate or the other has opened what appears to be a modest lead for several days. But, to this point in time, neither has been able to hold a sustained lead.

On the question of voter trust, McCain retains a slight edge over Obama when it comes to the economy and the War in Iraq. The GOP candidate holds a wide edge on National Security issues. These figures have changed little over the past month. However, generically, Democrats tend to be trusted more than Republicans on a whole range of key issues before the nation.

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 47%. Obama’s numbers are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). Voters see McCain as the candidate most likely to reach across party lines and work effectively with both Republicans and Democrats. Still, a commentary by Dr. Alan I. Abramowitz suggests that a victory by John McCain would be “an upset of unprecedented magnitude.” Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

FiveThirtyEight.com has taken the time to review polling data and election results from the last eight years and rank more than 30 of the nation’s polling firms and organizations. While there is much more to polling than being closest to the mark with your final numbers, the results are interesting. Rasmussen Reports is ranked number three on the list.

Polling released yesterday showed John McCain leading in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker is in a competitive race. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

McCain leads 58% to 33% among Evangelical Christians and by six points among other Protestant voters. Consistent with results from many recent state polls, McCain( McCain News ) does better among those who attend Church or other religious services on a regular basis. Obama( Obama News ) is stronger among those who rarely or never attend services (see other recent demographic notes).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Rhodes Cook looks at the Outsized Role of Caucuses in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Joe Conason looks at the troubled Democratic nominating process and concludes “there is plenty of blame to be shared among all the participants, from Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and their surrogates to Howard Dean and the party apparatus in Washington.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

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