The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that John McCain attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 44%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on four of the last six days. On the other two days during that stretch, the candidates were tied. (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Twenty-four percent (24%) of White Democrats nationwide currently say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.
New Senate polling data released today shows veteran Republican Senator Mitch McConnell trailing in Kentucky. In Minnesota, another Republican Senator, Norm Coleman, is narrowly ahead. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.
Other polling shows that most Americans say that the economic stimulus package has had no impact. Most also say that the best thing the government can do for the economy is get out of the way. Seventy-one percent (71%) say it’s likely that gas prices will reach $5 a gallon this summer.
McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings). ( McCain news )
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.6% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 49% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.5% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 48%. ( Obama News )
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.