The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that John McCain and Barack Obama are tied again at 45%. Over the past seven days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart three times. On the other four days, McCain( McCain News ) has had an advantage of two points or more (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 34%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).
This Memorial Day, 37% of Americans have friends or relatives serving in Iraq. Seventy-five percent (75%) have a favorable opinion of the U.S. military.
New polling from Kentucky shows John McCain safely ahead in the state. In Minnesota, Obama retains a double digit lead. The Democrat has a smaller advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2c % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).
Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6 % chance of winning the nomination( Obama news ). Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.