The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/24/08

May 24, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 44%. This is the third time in the last five days that McCain has had an advantage exceeding a single percentage point. Still, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart for twelve of the last fifteen days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Democrats lead by eight on the Generic Congressional Ballot and have an even bigger advantage in terms of partisan identification. A column by Dick Morris anticipates a possible “GOP Senate Massacre” in November.

In the race for the White House, McCain leads among those who closely follow traditional local media and among those who rarely or never rely upon local TV and newspapers. Obama lead among those whose use is in between.

Among those who watch local TV news every night or nearly every night, McCain leads 49% to 41%. Among those who read the local paper every day or nearly every day, McCain leads 48% to 42%. Among those who rarely or never turn on local TV news, McCain leads by six and he is up by twelve among those who rarely or never read a local newspaper. Obama news

Among those who occasionally watch local television news and those who watch a couple of times a week, Obama leads by five. Among those who occasionally read the local newspaper and those who read it a couple of times per week, Obama leads by four.

Part of this divergence undoubtedly results from the age difference in support for Obama and McCain. Obama leads among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters. Obama polls

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 27% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign . The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.4% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%. Obama videos

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.