The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/23/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain and Barack Obama tied with each man attracting 45% of the vote. On twelve of the last fourteen days, the two candidates have been tied or just a single percentage point apart (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Polling released yesterday showed Obama with a double-digit lead in California and McCain holding a modest lead in Nevada. New state polls will be released at 10:30 this morning for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.9 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

As Obama edges ever closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The manner in which he resolves the competition with Clinton could determine who moves into the White House next January.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over two weeks, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.8% chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.

A column by Dick Morris, drawing heavily upon Rasmussen Reports polling data, looks at the “GOP Senate Massacre of ’08.” He suggests the results could be worse for Republicans than “the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

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