The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/21/08

May 21, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 44%. This is the eleventh time in the last twelve days that the candidates have been within a single percentage point of each other. McCain has held a statistically insignificant lead on four of the last five days. Prior to that, it was Obama with an equally insignificant lead for ten straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

New polling released today shows that Obama has opened a modest lead over McCain in Colorado. Democrats also have a reason to smile about new polling on that state’s Senate race. At 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data from Florida. At noon Eastern, national polling will be released on the importance of Supreme Court appointments in Election 2008.

Obama is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 48%. McCain’s numbers are 49% favorable and 47% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger. The likely Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 28% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%. For McCain, the numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 22% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily ratings).

Rasmussen Reports has recently released new polls from Ohio, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Alaska (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.9% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

At least ten Republican Senate seats could be at risk during Election 2008 including Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues and polling indicates that the Nebraska seat currently held by Chuck Hagel may also be in fairly good shape for the GOP.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted over a week ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 93.1 % chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%.

Just 13% say that Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Other tracking data shows that most Americans prefer lower taxes and fewer government programs.

If McCain is elected, 49% of voters believe victory in Iraq is likely. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say an Obama victory will lead to troops coming home during his first term in office.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.