The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/18/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama earning 45% of the vote while John McCain attracts 44%. Yesterday, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain with the statistically insignificant one-point advantage. This is the ninth straight day that the candidates have been within a single point of each other (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Obama has a modest lead when Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are added to the survey as Libertarian Party and Green Party candidates.

Among fiscal conservatives, McCain leads Obama 72% to 17%. McCain’s advantage among social conservatives is 68% to 21%. Among fiscal liberals, Obama leads McCain 79% to 10%. Among those who are liberal on social issues, Obama leads 73% to 20%.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide, Obama by 49%. That’s the second straight day Obama’s favorable rating has been below 50% (see recent daily ratings).

McCain is viewed favorably by 68% of social conservatives and 72% of fiscal conservatives. He gets positive reviews from 28% of those who are liberal on social issues and 20% of fiscal issue liberals.

Obama is viewed favorably by 76% of voters who are liberal on social issues and 84% of those who are liberal on fiscal issues. He is also viewed favorably by 28% of social conservatives and 24% of fiscal conservatives. See notes on other demographic comparisons.

New polling released today shows McCain leading in Nebraska. Data released yesterday showed Obama ahead in New Mexico while McCain has the advantage in Alaska. Recent polling has also been released for Iowa, Maine, Washington, Arkansas and Kansas (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.5% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

In what has become an unusual finding this season, the Republican Senate candidate in Nebraska appears to be in fairly good shape as the general election campaign begins. However, that is not the case in Alaska where Republican Senator Ted Stevens trails by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Earlier polls show that at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 46% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted last Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%. The candidates are each favored to win one primary on Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 92.0% chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

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