The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/17/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 44%. This is the eight straight day that the candidates have been within a single point of each other. It’s also the first time in nearly two weeks that McCain has had even a statistically insignificant advantage over Obama (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

New polling released today shows that McCain is leading by nine points in Alaska. However, other polling from that state shows that Republican Senator Ted Stevens trails by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Later today, polling will be released for New Mexico’s Presidential and Senate races. Rasmussen Reports has recently released polling data on the Presidential race in Iowa, Maine, Washington, Arkansas and Kansas (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189.

McCain currently leads Obama 51% to 39% among married Americans but trails by more than twenty percentage points among those who are not. Among single women, Obama leads 59% to 27% while McCain leads by six among married women. McCain leads by eighteen points among married men but trails by seventeen among men who are not married.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide, Obama by 48%. That’s the second straight day Obama’s favorable rating has been below 50% (see recent daily ratings). McCain’s is viewed favorably by 53% of married voters. Obama earns positive reviews from 62% of those who are not married.

Despite the ups and downs of the campaigns over the past month, the race for the White House has remained quite stable. For the past month, Obama’s support in a general election match-up has been between 42% and 47% every single day. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 48%. During the past 30 days, the candidates have been within two percentage points of each other eighteen times, including each of the last eight days

Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 62.5c% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

New Senate polling shows that Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids. Earlier polls show that at least ten other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas.

Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 46% to 44% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted last Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%. The candidates are each favored to win one primary next Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 92.1% chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

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