The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/16/08

May 16, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied with each man earning 45% of the vote. For the past month, Obama’s support in a general election match-up has been between 42% and 47% every single day. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 48%. During the past 30 days, the candidates have been within two percentage points of each other seventeen times, including each of the last seven days (see recent daily results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 62.8 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Obama currently leads McCain by three percentage points among women while trailing by four points among men.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide, Obama by 48%. That’s the first time in nearly two weeks that Obama’s favorable rating has slipped below 50% (see recent daily ratings). McCain’s is viewed favorably by 53% of men and 48% of women. Obama earns positive reviews from 46% of men and 50% of women.

Polling released yesterday showed an Obama-McCain toss-up in Iowa, a double digit lead for Obama in Washington, and big leads for McCain in Arkansas and Kansas (see summary of recent state-by-state results). This afternoon, and over the weekend, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for Alaska, Maine, and New Mexico. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189.

New Senate polling will also be released over the weekend for Alaska, New Mexico, and Maine. Earlier polls show that at least ten Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

It is amazing that McCain remains competitive at all in a year where the fundamentals so heavily favor the Democrats. New data released today shows that just 15% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction. Seventy-nine percent (79%) say just the opposite. The Rasmussen Consumer Index continues to show consumer confidence at record lows while confidence in the War on Terror has fallen sharply. Democrats are now trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.

Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Democrats want Hillary Clinton to run an Independent campaign for the White House. The number who want her to drop out of the race has changed little in recent weeks.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Clinton continues to have a solid lead among both White Women and Hispanic voters. As noted last Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%.

The candidates are each favored to win one primary next Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.7 % chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.