The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/15/08

May 15, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the sixth consecutive day with Obama holding a one-point advantage (see recent daily results).

Obama is supported by 71% of Democrats, McCain by 80% of Republicans. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Obama currently holds a three-percentage point advantage.

It is amazing that McCain remains competitive at all in a year where the fundamentals so heavily favor the Democrats. New data released today shows that just 15% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction. Seventy-nine percent (79%) say just the opposite. The Rasmussen Consumer Index continues to show consumer confidence at record lows while confidence in the War on Terror has fallen sharply. Democrats are now trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.

New polling data released today shows that Iowa remains a toss-up with Obama ( Obama news ) edging McCain by two. New data will be released between noon and 2:00 p.m. Eastern for Arkansas, Washington, and Kansas (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189.

Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide (see recent daily ratings). Obama is viewed favorably by 77% of liberal voters and 58% of moderate voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 68% of conservative voters and 47% of moderate voters. Among Very Conservative voters, just 57% have a favorable opinion of McCain while 81% of Very Liberal voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.5% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Senate polling shows at least ten Republican Senate seats could be in play for Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Democrats want Hillary Clinton to run an Independent campaign for the White House. The number who want her to drop out of the race has changed little in recent weeks.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 41% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.

The candidates are each favored to win one primary next Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.6% chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.