The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/14/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. Obama has now held a statistically insignificant lead over McCain for nine straight days. Seven of those nine days have found the candidates just one point apart. Prior to this past week, Obama had not been ahead of McCain for a sustained period of time since mid-February (see recent daily results).

Obama leads by fifteen points among those who are not married while McCain has the lead among married voters. The marriage gap is particularly noticeable among women. McCain leads by nine percentage points among women who are married while Obama leads by twenty-three among women who are not married.

New polling released today shows that 29% of Democrats want Hillary Clinton to run an Independent campaign for the White House. The number who want her to drop out of the race has changed little in recent weeks.

State polls for the Obama-McCain match-up have recently been released for Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon and Michigan (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189.

Among all voters nationwide, Obama is viewed favorably by 50%, McCain by 49% (see recent daily ratings). Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 56%, McCain by 45%. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Senate polling shows at least ten Republican Senate seats could be in play for Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

New polling data shows that Democrats are now trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Democrats even have the edge on national security issues. This comes as confidence in the War on Terror has dropped sharply over the past month. Just 22% give the President good marks for his handling of the situation in Iraq.

Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%.

The candidates are each favored to win one primary next Tuesday–Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.8% chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

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