The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/12/08

May 12, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46% (see recent daily results). Rasmussen Reports did not conduct survey interviews on Mothers’ Day and these results are based upon interviews conducted from Wednesday through Saturday. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 60.3 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

New polling released today shows McCain leading Obama by three percentage points in both Virginia and North Carolina. Polling released over the weekend shows Obama leading big in Oregon and a toss-up in Michigan (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Senate polling released yesterday from North Carolina shows Democrat Kay Hagan in a toss-up with Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Polling released Saturday shows that Oregon Senator Gordon Smith is another potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent. Today’s release shows that Mark Warner (D) retains a big lead in the Virginia Senate race. All told, there are at least ten Senate seats currently held by Republicans that could be in play for Democrats during Election 2008. In addition to Virginia, North Carolina and Oregon, these include Senate seats in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky and Texas.

Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

Nationally, in the race for the White House, McCain leads by twelve percentage points among White Men and eleven points among White Women while Obama overwhelmingly attracts the African-American vote. Among Hispanic voters, Obama leads 58% to 35%.

Obama leads 59% to 35% among those who rarely, never, or occasionally attend Church or other religious services. Among those who attend services at least a couple of times a month, McCain leads 56% to 37%. McCain leads 69% to 28% among Evangelical Christians (a commentary today by Robert Novak asserts that McCain has a problem of “disputed dimensions” with Evangelical Christians). Tracking results are updated daily by 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label.

Among all voters nationwide, Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, McCain by 49% (see recent daily favorable ratings).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 52% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%.

Clinton leads in two upcoming primaries where the demographics work in her favor–West Virginia and Kentucky. Obama leads in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 90.7% chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.