The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/10/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the fifth straight day that Obama has had at least a one-point advantage over McCain. While it is not a statistically significant lead, it is the first time Obama has led McCain on consecutive days in two months. The last time Obama outpolled McCain for five straight days was in mid-February (see recent daily results).

One key to this changing dynamic is that Obama now leads McCain among unaffiliated voters by nine percentage points. McCain is supported by 81% of Republicans, Obama by 70% of Democrats.

Robert Novak reports that Obama will never offer the number two spot on the ticket to Hillary Clinton.However, Rasmussen Reports notes that the VP slot belongs to Hillary Clinton if she wants it.

Tracking results are updated daily by 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.4c % chance of winning in November.

New polling data released today shows Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain in Oregon. Polling on the Oregon Senate race confirms that Gordon Smith is another potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent. Rasmussen Reports recently released general election polling data for Wisconsin, Missouri, and Georgia (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

In today’s tracking, Hillary Clinton has a five-point lead over McCain, 48% to 43%.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 48%. (see recent daily favorable ratings). Obama’s numbers are now a bit better than McCain’s—50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. That’s the fourth straight day that Obama’s favorable ratings have been higher than McCain’s. Prior to these past four days, that hadn’t happened since March 10. For Clinton, the reviews are a bit less flattering–45% favorable and 53% unfavorable.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 48% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted yesterday, Rasmussen Reports will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up.

There are, of course, still a few remaining Primaries to play out in the long-running process for the Democratic Nomination. Next week’s contest is in West Virginia where Clinton has a huge lead. The week after, Obama leads in Oregon while Clinton has a huge advantage in Kentucky. Expectations that Obama will be the Democratic nominee have risen sharply in the past couple of days. Just before Tuesday’s Primaries, Rasmussen Markets data gave Obama a 73% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. The most recent results give Obama a 90.4 % chance of emerging victorious (these results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Recent commentaries today include one by Robert Novak who notes that Obama may turn out to be either a flawed or a fantastic candidate. In a “Perfect Calm for John McCain,” Froma Harrop asserts that “The core problem for Democrats is that Obama’s backers are reliable Democrats, whereas Hillary Clinton’s are unreliable Democrats.” Joe Conason writes “Hillary Plays the Crazy Card.”

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

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