The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/07/08

May 7, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Hillary Clinton with a three-point advantage over John McCain, 47% to 44%. At the same time, Barack Obama has a one-point edge over McCain,45% to 44%. This is the eighth consecutive day that Clinton has outperformed Obama in the general election match-ups (see recent daily results). Tracking results are updated daily by 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Later today, general election polling results will be released for Wisconsin.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 47% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Virtually all interviews for today’s update were completed before results from Indiana and North Carolina were known. Last night’s results have further strengthened Obama’s prospects for winning the nomination. Yesterday morning, Rasmussen Markets data gave Obama a 73% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. The most recent results give Obama a 90.8 % chance of emerging victorious.

Looking ahead to the next round of Primaries, Obama leads in Oregon while Clinton has a huge advantage in West Virginia and Kentucky.

If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, 36% believe that naming Clinton as his running mate will improve his chances of victory in the fall. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe it will hurt. Democrats, by a 52% to 21% margin, believe adding Clinton to the ticket would be a plus. Republicans overwhelmingly disagree and so do a modest plurality of unaffiliated voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 39% say adding Clinton as VP would hurt while just 32% believe it would help.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 47%. (see recent daily favorable ratings). Obama’s numbers are now a bit better than McCain’s—51% favorable and 46% unfavorable. That’s the first time since March 10 that Obama’s favorable ratings have been higher than McCain’s by even a single point. For Clinton, the reviews are a bit less flattering–46% favorable and 51% unfavorable.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.4% chance of winning in November.

The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.