The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 5/05/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Hillary Clinton with a four-point advantage over John McCain, 47% to 43%. At the same time, McCain leads Barack Obama by an identical margin, 47% to 43% (see recent daily results). Tracking results are updated daily by 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. In these match-ups, Clinton is supported by 78% of Democrats, Obama by 67%. McCain leads both potential opponents by four percentage points among unaffiliated voters.

Clinton leads McCain by eleven among women but trails by three among men. Obama leads McCain by four among women but trails by thirteen among men.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of White Democrats prefer McCain over Obama. Thirteen percent (13%) pick McCain over Clinton.

Recently, there has been much discussion of who white working class voters will support in Election 2008. Among White voters who earn less than $40,000 annually, Clinton currently leads McCain by ten percentage points while McCain leads Obama by seven. Among White voters who earn between $40,000 and $75,000 a year, McCain leads Clinton by five and Obama by sixteen.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now attracts 46% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton earns support from 45%. A week ago, Obama led by eight (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Still, Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 73.9 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Clinton leads Obama among the self-employed, entrepreneurs, and retirees. Obama leads among government employees and those who work for a private sector company. White working class voters remain a challenge for Obama. Among White voters who earn less than $75,000 a year, Clinton leads Obama 59% to 32%. The lower the income level, the bigger her margins. However, among White voters who earn more than $75,000 annually, Obama leads Clinton by eight percentage points.

Polling released last week shows a split decision is expected tomorrow–Clinton leads in Indiana while Obama has the edge North Carolina. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. New polling data for West Virginia will be released at noon Eastern today and a first look at the Kentucky primary will be released tomorrow.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. (see recent daily favorable ratings). Obama is now viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 48%. For Clinton, the reviews are 48% favorable, 49% unfavorable. This is the first time Clinton’s unfavorable ratings have fallen below the 50% level since March 12.

Among men, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 45%, and Clinton by 44%. Among women, Obama earns favorable reviews from 53%, Clinton from 52%, and McCain from 48%.

New polling data was released today showing both Democrats within single digits of McCain in Texas. That state has a very competitive Senate race as well. Still, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning in November.

The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

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