Is Obama really losing by the Electoral College metric? If you look at the 16 most competitive contests of 2004, he actually has won MORE delegates than Hillary Clinton. What’s more, her margin of victory was 6.7%, and his was 20.7% on average.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Barack Obama also earns 46%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Among White voters, McCain leads Obama by twelve and Clinton by eleven. Among African-American voters, Obama dominates but Clinton attracts just 59% support. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).
These results come on a day when consumer confidence in the economy has fallen to another record low. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that 77% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse and that most—55%–say their own personal finances are getting worse.
Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 47% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). , McCain is generally trusted more than the Democratic candidates on several key issues.
New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8% chance of winning in November
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 42% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the Pennsylvania Primary. On the morning of that Primary, Obama led Clinton 49% to 41%, essentially the same as today’s results.
For each of the past six daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been within three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.
These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.
Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.