The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/26/08

April 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. In both match-ups, McCain leads among men while the Democratic candidate leads among women. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results).

New state polling from Pennsylvania shows that both Democrats lost ground to John McCain during the final two weeks of the Keystone State campaign. McCain and Obama are essentially even while Clinton enjoys a modest lead over the GOP hopeful. Favorability ratings for both Democrats slipped in Pennsylvania over the past two weeks.

National polling data shows that while Democrats are generally trusted more than Republicans on key issues, McCain is generally trusted more than the current Democratic candidates.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll and include three nights of data since the Pennsylvania Primary. For each of the past five daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been withing three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle-income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 50% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

New polling has recently been released from Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. With these latest results included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0% chance of winning in November

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.