The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/25/08

April 26, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain also earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, it’s McCain 47%, Clinton 45%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). Scott Rasmussen suggests that a careful look at the tracking poll data shows potentially hidden support for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.0 % chance of winning in November.

Later today, new state polling will be released from Pennsylvania. Also, polling data will be released showing whether voters trust McCain or Clinton more on key issues of Election 2008. Earlier this week, data was released showing that, on most key issues, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans. However, when candidate names are used rather than party labels, the results shift–McCain is trusted more than Obama on both the economy and the War in Iraq.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 49%, Clinton 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Those numbers are unchanged from the night before and, so far, there is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include two full nights of polling following the Pennsylvania Primary.

These results and other data suggest that there is no “momentum” in this Primary Season. Typically, momentum results as voters learn more about a candidate who is doing well. This cycle, Hillary Clinton began the campaign as one of the best known people in the world. Democrats uneasy with her quickly settled on Obama as the chief challenger who has now become the frontrunner. As the candidates have become known, each has developed a solid core of supportive constituencies. For Obama, these included African-Americans, younger voters, more liberal Democrats, and upper-income voters. For Clinton, strength comes from White Women, older voters, more moderate Democrats, and lower-to-middle income workers.

Six weeks of campaigning in Pennsylvania, and still uncounted millions of dollars in campaign spending, was unable to significantly move any of the demographic support groups from one candidate to the other. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything that will cause the underlying patterns of support to change. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.6% chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, the reviews are 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Just 41% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama while 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

In the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator, Democrats now lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). New state polling has just been released for Minnesota and Nevada.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.