The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/23/08

April 23, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain with a three-point advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 44%. McCain attracts support from 82% of Republicans, Obama from 71% of Democrats, and McCain has a very slight edge among unaffiliated voters. The presumptive Republican nominee has a similar advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 44%. In this match-up, McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans, Clinton by 75% of Democrats, and McCain has a double-digit edge among unaffiliated voters. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results).

While McCain has a modest advantage early in the campaign, Scott Rasmussen notes that the fundamentals in 2008 still favor the Democrats. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is little changed–Obama earns support from 48% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 43% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and virtually all interviews were completed before results from Pennsylvania’s Primary were known. It will be several days before any impact from this vote can be measured. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 82.0 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Just 15% of Americans say the nation is better off than it was four years ago. Seventy-five percent (75%) disagree. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at how comments from the Democratic candidates about raising the capital gains tax will impact Election 2008.

Polling released over the weekend shows that confidence in the War on Terror has declined slightly over the past month. Forty-five percent (45%) of the nation’s voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe the terrorists are winning.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.