The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/22/08

April 22, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows John McCain with a three-point advantage over Barack Obama 47% to 44%. The presumptive Republican nominee has a six-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 49% to 43%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). While McCain has a modest advantage early in the campaign, Scott Rasmussen notes that the fundamentals in 2008 still favor the Democrats.

New polling released today shows that just 15% of Americans say the nation is better off than it was four years ago. Seventy-five percent (75%) disagree. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at how comments from the Democratic candidates about raising the capital gains tax will impact Election 2008.

Today, the political world will focus on the Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania where Clinton leads Obama. Scott Rasmussen discussed the Pennsylvania Primary on WNYW-TV, New York.

Nationally, the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is little changed–Obama earns support from 49% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 41% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 81.5 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination..

While Obama retains his modest lead in the Democratic race, the data provides fresh evidence of the wounds the party will try to heal before November. Nationwide, among Likely Democratic Primary Voters, just 42% of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton. Fifty-five percent (55%) have an unfavorable view.

The reverse is also true—just 40% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Clinton fans have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic frontrunner.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Eighteen percent (18%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 35% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 25% Very Favorable and 32% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 18% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Twenty percent (20%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Polling released over the weekend shows that confidence in the War on Terror has declined slightly over the past month. Forty-five percent (45%) of the nation’s voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe the terrorists are winning.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.