The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical margin of 48% to 43%. While the topline results are the same, there are important differences in the way those results are obtained. Clinton does better among Democrats than Obama while Obama does better among unaffiliated voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, McCain leads Obama by five and Clinton by sixteen. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, on the eve of the Pennsylvania Primary, Obama leads Clinton nationally 47% to 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Rasmussen Reports will release its final Pennsylvania Primary poll results at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. Nationally, the candidates are even among Democrats while Obama builds his advantage among Unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 83.6% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).
Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Eighteen percent (18%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 35% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 26% Very Favorable and 33% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 18% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Twenty percent (20%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.
Polling released over the weekend shows that confidence in the War on Terror has declined slightly over the past month. Forty-five percent (45%) of the nation’s voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe the terrorists are winning.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.