The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/20/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by six percentage points and Hillary Clinton by four.McCain leads Barack Obama 48% to 42%. That is little changed from McCain’s five-point lead over Obama just prior to the last debate between the Democratic candidates. The presumptive Republican nominee leads Hillary Clinton 48% to 44%. Prior to the debate, McCain enjoyed a ten-point lead over Clinton. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results).

Today’s results mark one of the few times that Clinton runs better than Obama against McCain. It will take a few more days to determine if this is a lasting change or merely statistical noise.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 33% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 25% Very Favorable and 33% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 18% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton nationally 46% to 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Today’s results continue to suggest a very stable race with Obama enjoying a consistent, but modest, lead. Obama has been within three percentage points of the 48% level every day for three weeks. Clinton has stayed within three points of the 43% level for well over a month.

While the national numbers are fairly stable, Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to three percentage points. That same survey found that 57% believe the Superdelegates should honor the primary results and vote for Obama even if something happens to convince them that Clinton would be a stronger general election candidate. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 83.7 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.9 % chance of winning the White House in November.

New polling shows a toss-up between Obama and McCain in Colorado while McCain retains a solid lead over Clinton in that state. The campaign for Colorado’s U.S. Senate seat remains close.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

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