The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/19/08

April 20, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain leading both potential Democratic candidates by seven percentage points. McCain leads Barack Obama, 48% to 41% and also leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 42%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). New polling shows a toss-up between Obama and McCain in Colorado while McCain retains a solid lead over Clinton in that state.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 40%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

Opinions are more firmly established for the Democratic candidates than for McCain. Twenty percent (20%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady while 33% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Obama, those numbers are 24% Very Favorable and 33% Very Unfavorable. By way of contrast, just 19% of voters nationwide have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. Seventeen percent (17%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton nationally 45% to 43% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). While that appears to be a tightening of the race, today’s results are consistent with the general range of support enjoyed by both candidates in recent weeks. Obama has been within three percentage points of the 48% level every day and Clinton has stayed within three points of the 43% level.

While the national numbers are fairly stable, Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to three percentage points. That same survey found that 57% believe the Superdelegates should honor the primary results and vote for Obama even if something happens to convince them that Clinton would be a stronger general election candidate. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 84.0 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.8 % chance of winning the White House in November.

The campaign for Colorado’s U.S. Senate seat remains close.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.