The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/16/08

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 47% to 42%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 50% to 40%. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain leads Obama by eight percentage points and Clinton by fifteen. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent general election results).

Overall, among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings). Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 47%, and Clinton by 34%.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton nationally 48% to 41%. Obama leads among voters under 50 while Clinton has the lead among older voters. Obama has an eighteen-point lead among men while Clinton holds a single-point edge among women. Among White Women nationwide, Clinton retains a double-digit lead. Obama continues to attract overwhelming support from African-American voters. In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads by nine. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.8 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

New polling released today shows that Americans who feel good about their finances are more likely to attend Church and consider faith an important part of their life.

Nationally, despite daily fluctuations caused by statistical noise, the Democratic race has remained quite stable for over a month. Support for Obama has been with three percentage points of the 48% level every day for the past three weeks. Prior to that, his support had stayed within three points of the 45% level every day but one in March. Clinton’s support has also been stable, but at a slightly lower level. The former First Lady has within three percentage points of the 43% level every day for over a month (see recent Democratic Nomination results). When Clinton is at the top of her range, the race appears even. When Obama is at the top of his range, he appears to have a commanding lead. The reality is somewhere in between those two extremes.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.4 % chance of winning the White House in November.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary. 

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