The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/15/08

April 15, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 47% to 43%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 48% to 41%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent general election results).

Overall, among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama’s ratings are 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 54% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.1 % chance of winning the White House in November.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton 50% to 41%. New polling data released today shows that, with just one week to go, Clinton has opened a nine-percentage point lead in Pennsylvania.

Nationally, despite daily fluctuations caused by statistical noise, the Democratic race has remained quite stable for over a month. Support for Obama has been with three percentage points of the 48% level every day for the past two-and-a-half weeks. Prior to that, his support had stayed within three points of the 45% level every day but one in March. Clinton’s support has also been stable, but at a slightly lower level. The former First Lady has within three percentage points of the 43% level every day for over a month (see recent Democratic Nomination results). When Clinton is at the top of her range, the race appears even. When Obama is at the top of his range, he appears to have a commanding lead. The reality is somewhere in between those two extremes. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 80.1 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Most voters (56%) nationwide disagree with Obama’s controversial comment that people in small towns “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.