The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/14/08

April 14, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 49% to 42%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 43%. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent general election results).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton 48% to 44%. While statistical noise has created daily fluctuations, this race has remained quite stable for the past month or so. A look at the overall trends shows Obama enjoying a modest but consistent advantage.

Support for the Illinois Senator has been with three percentage points of the 48% level every day for the past two-and-a-half weeks. Prior to that, his support had stayed within three points of the 45% level every day but one in March. Clinton’s support has also been stable, but at a slightly lower level. The former First Lady has within three percentage points of the 43% level every day for over a month (see recent Democratic Nomination results). When Clinton is at the top of her range, the race appears even. When Obama is at the top of his range, he appears to have a commanding lead. The reality is somewhere in between those two extremes.

Overall, among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s ratings are 48% favorable and 50% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 46% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily favorable ratings).

New polling data released this morning shows that 56% of voters nationwide disagree with Obama’s controversial comment that people in small towns “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” Partisan and ideological perceptions suggest that Obama’s comments may have more impact on the General Election than the Primaries. Liberal voters tend to agree with Obama and Democrats are fairly evenly divided.

The data also suggests that the Obama campaign was shrewd to try and focus attention on the portion of the comments about people being bitter. Most Americans agree with Obama’s statement that “People are fed up. They’re angry and they’re frustrated and they’re bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington.” Following the initial weekend furor over the remarks, Rasmussen Markets data still gives Obama an 82.7 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. On Saturday, Michigan moved from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.” When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). New state polling for Florida will be released at noon Eastern today. Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House in November.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.