The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/13/08

April 13, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 50% to 42%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 49% Clinton 41%. McCain now leads both Democrats among unaffiliated voters. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results). Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.1 % chance of winning the White House this year. In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Clinton has gained a statistically-insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 46% to 45%. Obama led by a significant margin for most of the past week, but his advantage had declined slightly even before his controversial remarks from San Francisco made news (see recent daily results). Rasmussen Reports is surveying voters this weekend for reaction to Obama’s remarks. Preliminary indications from interviews with 400 Likely Voters suggest that the comments are troublesome for Republicans and unaffiliated voters. However, there is less of an impact among Democrats. That tends to confirm the growing consensus that the comments may have more impact on the General Election than the Primaries. The preliminary data also suggests that Obama was shrewd to try and focus attention on the portion of the comments about people being bitter. That part of the message is well received. The reference to guns, religion, and immigration that creates potential problems. Rasmussen Markets data still gives Obama an 82.0 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Overall, among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s ratings have fallen to 48% favorable and 50% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 46% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily results). Obama’s favorable ratings peaked at 56% in mid-February and stayed above 50% for another month until the comments of his former Pastor Jeremiah Wright made news. By late March, Obama’s favorable ratings had fallen ten points from their peak to 46%. But, as March became April, his ratings began to recover and moved back above the 50% mark for ten straight days until today. Obama is currently viewed favorably by 45% of unaffiliated voters and 44% of White voters. Not all the news is bad for the Illinois Senator. Polling data released Saturday from North Carolina shows he is now in a toss-up with McCain (the poll was completed before his San Francisco comments made the news). Polling released Friday provided good news for Democrats in Pennsylvania and no surprises in Louisiana. Recent polls have also been released for Ohio, New Mexico, Alaska, and Montana. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. On Saturday, Michigan moved from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.” When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.