The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/11/08

April 11, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows John McCain with a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 44%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, McCain attracts 48% of the vote while Clinton earns 42% (see recent daily results). Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year. State polls released yesterday for Ohio, New Mexico, Alaska, and Montana provide doses of good and bad news for both parties. New general election polling data will be released at noon Eastern for Pennsylvania and Louisiana.

The current status of the Obama-Clinton competition is clearly having an impact on the general election numbers. In a McCain-Obama match-up, thirty percent (30%) of Democrats say they will not vote for Obama. This includes 10% who say they will vote for a third party candidate or are currently undecided. The number of Republicans who will not currently vote for McCain against Obama is 16%. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, 27% of Democrats say they will not vote for her while the slippage for McCain is 13%. If all of these wayward partisans returned home, the Democratic candidates would enjoy a net bounce of several points.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now attracts 47% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 44%. That’s the closest the race has been in a week (see recent daily results). Clinton continues to hold a modest lead in Pennsylvania while Obama holds a huge lead in North Carolina. Data from Rasmussen Markets now gives Obama an 84.3 % chance to win the Democratic nomination. New survey data shows that 63% of Democrats expect Obama to be the nominee.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Democrats now say Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race while 26% say the same about Obama. Those figures are up from 22% each in late March. Ten percent (10%) want both to leave.

Gender and race issues remain a major factor in the Democratic competition and 37% of voters nationwide believe that African-Americans experience more discrimination than women. Twenty-seven percent (27%) hold the opposite view.

Overall, among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s reviews are also 51% favorable and 47% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Democrats enjoy a six-percentage point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot. This comes at a time when just 13% believe the nation’s legislators are doing a good or an excellent job.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.