The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows—for the third time in four days–Barack Obama with a double digit lead in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 40%. That’s the lowest total ever recorded for Clinton since the contest became a two-person race.
Obama’s support has now been at or above 50% for four straight days. Prior to this stretch, he had reached the 50% level just once in more than a year of daily tracking polls (see recent daily results). Obama’s gains appear to be more than just statistical noise and actually reflect a modest shift in the campaign nationally. Still, given the nature of this campaign, it remains to be seen whether or not Obama can retain his newfound lead. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Today at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for the Pennsylvania Primary. Just over a month ago, Clinton had a wide lead in the Keystone State. That lead declined steadily until it tumbled to five percentage points a week ago. In North Carolina, the trend is also moving in Obama’s direction. It now appears that Clinton’s only remaining path to the nomination is for Obama to make a mistake. Rasmussen Markets data now gives Obama an 87.1 % chance to win the Democratic nomination.
Looking ahead to the general election, John McCain currently leads Barack Obama 47% to 45% and Hillary Clinton 47% to 43% (see recent daily results). On the day that General David Petraeus makes his much anticipated appearance before Congress, new Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 65% of Americans want the troops to come home from Iraq within the year. At the same time, just 26% want the troops brought home immediately. The gap between those numbers represents both an opportunity and a challenge for each of the Presidential hopefuls. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year.
McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 47% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily results). Those ratings are far higher than the Congress earns—just 13% say the legislature is doing a good or excellent job.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240. A Top Fives video features the five closest states in White House race (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Fox’s Beltway Boys discuss how McCain is doing surprisingly well in the Electoral College.
On a related topic, an AP video shows John McCain responding to questions about the possibility of Condoleezza Rice as his Vice Presidential running mate. Fox News looks at the possibility of Rice as McCain’s running mate.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of Americans say the federal government is not doing enough to help the troubled economy. Fifty-six percent (56%) believe that stopping illegal immigration would help the economy. However, another survey shows that nearly half the country believes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. At the same time, 47% consider Global Warming a Very Serious problem, but a solid plurality sees a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Monday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.