Following a month of declining poll numbers for Senator Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, the race has stabilized for the moment.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points in the Keystone State, 48% to 43%. That’s little changed from a week ago, but down from a ten-point lead two weeks ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.
Most Obama supporters, 58%, now say Clinton should drop out of the race while just 19% disagree. A week ago, Obama supporters were more divided on that question—45% wanted Clinton to drop out while 39% disagreed.
Overall, 28% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Clinton should get out of the race. That’s up from 21% a week ago. Eighteen percent (18%) say Obama should withdraw, unchanged from last week.
The survey was taken as Obama opened his largest lead of the year nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 75% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 72%. Those figures are little changed from a week ago. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
If Obama is nominated, 61% of Clinton supporters say they are likely to vote for him against John McCain. That’s up from 56% a week ago.
On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. That’s unchanged over the past week.
Forty-five percent (45%) in Pennsylvania say it’s very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That’s down from 51% a week ago and includes 58% of Clinton voters along with 29% of those who support Obama.
Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White Voters while Obama attracts 86% of the African-American vote.
While there is a huge racial divide in the nominating contest, 81% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that race relations are better today than in the 1960s. Sixty-two percent (62%) say things are getting better today while 13% say they are getting worse. African-Americans are somewhat less optimistic than White voters on both questions. Thirty-five percent (35%) of African-Americans say they have personally witnessed discrimination in the past week along with 12% of White voters.
Forty-two percent (42%) say there is more discrimination against African-Americans than against women. Thirty-one percent (31%) take the opposite view. African-Americans, by a 79% to 11% margin, say there is more discrimination based upon race than gender. White voters are evenly divided on that question. Among White Women, 39% say there is more discrimination against women while 35% see more discrimination among African-Americans.
Among White Women in Pennsylvania, Clinton continues to lead Obama by a 2-to-1 margin.
A separate survey found that both Democrats are in a competitive race with John McCain for Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Looking at the Electoral College, the race is essentially a Toss-Up.
Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll shows that Clinton is favored to end up victorious in Pennsylvania (current prices: Clinton 71.0 % Obama 29.9 %). Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.