Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary polls 4/8/08

April 8, 2008

Following a month of declining poll numbers for Senator Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, the race has stabilized for the moment.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points in the Keystone State, 48% to 43%. That’s little changed from a week ago, but down from a ten-point lead two weeks ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Most Obama supporters, 58%, now say Clinton should drop out of the race while just 19% disagree. A week ago, Obama supporters were more divided on that question—45% wanted Clinton to drop out while 39% disagreed.

Overall, 28% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Clinton should get out of the race. That’s up from 21% a week ago. Eighteen percent (18%) say Obama should withdraw, unchanged from last week.

The survey was taken as Obama opened his largest lead of the year nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 75% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 72%. Those figures are little changed from a week ago. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

If Obama is nominated, 61% of Clinton supporters say they are likely to vote for him against John McCain. That’s up from 56% a week ago.

On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. That’s unchanged over the past week.

Forty-five percent (45%) in Pennsylvania say it’s very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That’s down from 51% a week ago and includes 58% of Clinton voters along with 29% of those who support Obama.

Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White Voters while Obama attracts 86% of the African-American vote.

While there is a huge racial divide in the nominating contest, 81% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters say that race relations are better today than in the 1960s. Sixty-two percent (62%) say things are getting better today while 13% say they are getting worse. African-Americans are somewhat less optimistic than White voters on both questions. Thirty-five percent (35%) of African-Americans say they have personally witnessed discrimination in the past week along with 12% of White voters.

Forty-two percent (42%) say there is more discrimination against African-Americans than against women. Thirty-one percent (31%) take the opposite view. African-Americans, by a 79% to 11% margin, say there is more discrimination based upon race than gender. White voters are evenly divided on that question. Among White Women, 39% say there is more discrimination against women while 35% see more discrimination among African-Americans.

Among White Women in Pennsylvania, Clinton continues to lead Obama by a 2-to-1 margin.

A separate survey found that both Democrats are in a competitive race with John McCain for Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Looking at the Electoral College, the race is essentially a Toss-Up.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll shows that Clinton is favored to end up victorious in Pennsylvania (current prices: Clinton 71.0 % Obama 29.9 %). Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/8/08

April 8, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows—for the third time in four days–Barack Obama with a double digit lead in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 40%. That’s the lowest total ever recorded for Clinton since the contest became a two-person race.

Obama’s support has now been at or above 50% for four straight days. Prior to this stretch, he had reached the 50% level just once in more than a year of daily tracking polls (see recent daily results). Obama’s gains appear to be more than just statistical noise and actually reflect a modest shift in the campaign nationally. Still, given the nature of this campaign, it remains to be seen whether or not Obama can retain his newfound lead. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Today at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for the Pennsylvania Primary. Just over a month ago, Clinton had a wide lead in the Keystone State. That lead declined steadily until it tumbled to five percentage points a week ago. In North Carolina, the trend is also moving in Obama’s direction. It now appears that Clinton’s only remaining path to the nomination is for Obama to make a mistake. Rasmussen Markets data now gives Obama an 87.1 % chance to win the Democratic nomination.

Looking ahead to the general election, John McCain currently leads Barack Obama 47% to 45% and Hillary Clinton 47% to 43% (see recent daily results). On the day that General David Petraeus makes his much anticipated appearance before Congress, new Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 65% of Americans want the troops to come home from Iraq within the year. At the same time, just 26% want the troops brought home immediately. The gap between those numbers represents both an opportunity and a challenge for each of the Presidential hopefuls. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 47% favorable, 52% unfavorable (see recent daily results). Those ratings are far higher than the Congress earns—just 13% say the legislature is doing a good or excellent job.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240. A Top Fives video features the five closest states in White House race (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Fox’s Beltway Boys discuss how McCain is doing surprisingly well in the Electoral College.

On a related topic, an AP video shows John McCain responding to questions about the possibility of Condoleezza Rice as his Vice Presidential running mate. Fox News looks at the possibility of Rice as McCain’s running mate.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Americans say the federal government is not doing enough to help the troubled economy. Fifty-six percent (56%) believe that stopping illegal immigration would help the economy. However, another survey shows that nearly half the country believes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. At the same time, 47% consider Global Warming a Very Serious problem, but a solid plurality sees a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Monday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.