The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama retaining a significant lead over Hillary Clinton for the third straight day in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Clinton earns 41%. Obama leads by five points among Democrats and by a two-to-one margin among unaffiliated voters likely to take part in a Democratic Primary.
Obama’s support has now been at or above 50% for three straight days. Prior to this stretch, he had reached the 50% level just once in more than a year of daily tracking polls (see recent daily results). Still, given the nature of this campaign and of tracking polls, it will take a few more days to determine whether this signals a shift in the race or is merely statistical noise. (see video commentary on long-term trends). Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 85.4 % chance to win the Democratic nomination. Obama has opened a twenty-three percentage point lead in North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground. While Clinton struggles to keep her Presidential dream alive, campaign strategist Mark Penn has resigned.
Looking ahead to the general election, John McCain currently leads Barack Obama 46% to 45% and Hillary Clinton 47% to 44% (see recent daily results). New state polling shows Obama leading McCain by four in Iowa but McCain leading both Democrats handily in Tennessee (see Top Fives video featuring five closest states in White House race). Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year.
The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 and consumer confidence fell to new low on Monday as measured by the Rasmussen Consumer Index. Seventy percent (70%) of adults believe the economy is in a recession or that a recession is coming soon.
Sixty-three percent (63%) say the federal government is not doing enough to help the troubled economy. Fifty-six percent (56%) believe that stopping illegal immigration would help the economy. However, another survey shows that nearly half the country believes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. At the same time, 47% consider Global Warming a Very Serious problem, but a solid plurality sees a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection.
McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable (see recent daily results). An AP video shows John McCain responding to questions about the possibility of Condoleezza Rice as his Vice Presidential running mate .
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Fox’s Beltway Boys discuss how McCain is doing surprisingly well in the Electoral College .
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Monday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.