The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll 4/6/08

April 6, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama holding an eight-point lead ever in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 50% of the vote while Clinton earns 42%.

This is Obama’s second straight day with a sizable lead and support reaching 50% (see recent daily results). However, it will take several more days to determine whether this signals a shift in the race or is merely statistical noise. (see video commentary on long-term trends). Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 84.8 % chance to win the Democratic nomination. Obama has opened a twenty-three percentage point lead in North Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Clinton has the lead but Obama is gaining ground.

Looking ahead to the general election, John McCain currently leads Barack Obama 48% to 43% and Hillary Clinton 48% to 44% (see recent daily results). New state polling shows Obama leading McCain by four in Iowa but McCain leading both Democrats handily in Tennessee. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year.

Other polling shows that the economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 but nearly half the country believes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. At the same time, 47% consider Global Warming a Very Serious problem, but a solid plurality sees a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection. Consumer confidence remains near the lowest levels ever measured by Rasmussen Reports and so does President Bush’s Job Approval rating.

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable (see recent daily results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race remains a Toss-Up. Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Monday at 9:30 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.